US debt ‘set to explode’ underneath Trump

America’s national debt is “set to explode” under Donald Trump, top bankers at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) have warned.

Analysts at the Washington-based institute said the incoming president’s plan to slash taxes without equal cuts to spending would push US national debt up from around 100pc of GDP today to more than 135pc in a decade’s time.

Inflation is also likely to rise as Mr Trump stokes spending and makes imports more expensive by slapping tariffs on foreign-made goods.

The US national debt already stands at close to $36 trillion (£28 trillion) and the IIF warned debts could reach more than 150pc of GDP if Mr Trump’s tax cuts are more costly than expected for the US treasury. 

Mr Trump’s plans include making income from overtime and from tips tax-free. Such policies will stimulate spending, the IIF said, but will also reignite inflation.

The president-elect has said he wants to raise taxes on imported goods, bringing in extra revenue for the treasury and, hopefully, stimulating local manufacturing. However, this too will stoke inflation by making overseas-made goods more expensive.

Such price pressure will likely force the Federal Reserve to abandon its plans to cut interest rates, the IIF predicted, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer.

Analysts said: “Recent rate cuts have been part of the Fed’s strategy to support growth, yet the fiscal expansion under Trump could force the Fed to reconsider this path, particularly if inflationary risks emerge more rapidly than anticipated.”

Long-term borrowing costs have already risen sharply in financial markets in anticipation of higher US debts and higher-for-longer interest rates. The yield on 30-year treasurys, as US bonds are known, has risen from a low of under 4pc in September to more than 4.5pc today.

“The recent spike in the 30-year treasury yield, in particular, signals investor concerns about the sustainability of an expanding debt load and the potential for inflation as fiscal pressures mount,” the IIF said.

Mr Trump has appointed Elon Musk, the billionaire boss of Tesla and SpaceX, to lead a new department of government efficiency, which aims to offset the impact of tax cuts by slashing federal spending. However, neither man has yet outlined a detailed plan for how to cut spending. 

Mr Musk has previously said he could save the government $2 trillion. Economists have expressed doubts about how feasible this is. Paul Mortimer-Lee, an independent economist and research fellow at Niesr, has pointed out that cuts on such a scale would wipe out the equivalent of the budget for transport, education, housing, social services, science and the environment, as well as decimating other benefits like Medicare.

US government debt is traditionally seen as a safe haven for global investors, who often move money into the bonds at times of global crisis.

This, and the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, gives the American government more capacity than other nations to borrow heavily.

However, the IIF suggested that Mr Trump’s plans could stretch this unusual capacity for borrowing.

“Higher yields indicate that while investors see the potential for immediate growth, they are increasingly wary of the inflationary pressures and fiscal sustainability issues that could emerge under such an aggressive fiscal policy,” it said.

“The combination of fiscal stimulus, elevated tariffs, and stricter immigration policies is expected to drive inflationary pressures, which may limit the Fed’s ability to maintain an accommodative stance.”

The IIF pointed out that farms, construction and healthcare in the US “rely heavily on immigrant workers” and a crackdown on this group under Mr Trump could “exert additional upward pressure on prices”.

Borrowing costs in Britain, and much of the rest of the world, typically track those in the US, meaning that a rise there threatens to push up interest rates for other nations too.

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