Should you fix your energy bills before the price cap rise?

As of October 1, a typical household will pay £1,717 a year for their energy bills, following a rise in the “price cap”.

This is an increase of £149 over a year – or around £12 a month – the energy regulator said – meaning households can expect to pay more for their energy this winter than they paid since July. However, it is around 6pc less than its level in October last year when it was £1,834.

The rise has been attributed to an increase in wholesale costs since mid-February. Experts predict that the cap could rise even further in January because of recent tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Ofgem’s previous cap saw energy bills fall to the lowest they had been for two years – but the removal of government support means households are still paying far more for their energy than they were before the Russia-Ukraine war.

Some 10 million pensioners will also no longer receive the annual winter fuel allowance after Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced the £200 payment (£300 for over-80s) would only be paid to those already in receipt of pension credit. This means that despite bills falling year-on-year for most households, pensioners will be the only group to see bills go up since last winter.

Here, The Telegraph covers what the energy price cap is, whether it’s time to consider a fixed-term deal, and what you can do now to protect yourself from an energy price rise this winter.

What are fixed energy tariffs?

Fixed energy tariffs are deals offered by energy providers that last for a certain amount of time – usually around 12 months. 

During this time, you’ll pay a set amount for your gas and electricity – your bills will vary depending on your usage; it’s your rate that stays the same. 

If you don’t sign up for a fixed tariff, the rate is liable to fluctuate in accordance with the energy price cap.

Is fixing energy worth it?

Before the energy crisis, households were used to shopping around for competitive fixed-price deals.

However, the energy crisis upended the market, leaving variable rates governed by the price cap as the only viable option. Fixed rates became so expensive that providers stopped offering them altogether.

As wholesale prices have cooled, a number of fixed-rate deals have come on the market after years of being unavailable.

Fixing can be worth it when wholesale energy prices are set to increase; those on fixed tariffs will escape the resulting price rises. However, by committing to a fixed deal, you also run the risk of paying over the odds if energy prices fall during your contract term.

Gareth Kloet, of comparison site GoCompare, said the change in price cap was a good opportunity for households to assess whether they were paying a competitive rate for their power use.

He said: “If you are thinking about switching your energy deal, consider whether you will have to pay any early exit fees if you leave before your current deal is up. Looking at all of your options on a comparison site is an effective way to see which options are available to you at the moment.”

Energy providers have ramped up exit fees in recent years, meaning that a household looking to ditch an unfavourable rate will likely pay £150-£75 per fuel.

Several providers have introduced fixed rates that are significantly cheaper than the current cap, but such fixes may end up costing consumers more in the long run.

Richard Neudegg, director of regulation at comparison site uSwitch, said: “The price cap is expected to rise again in January, but billpayers can take action now to lock in certainty on how much they pay.

“There are several 12-month fixed deals available at rates cheaper than today’s firm prediction, so run a comparison to see what energy tariffs are available to you.”

Defenders of fixed-rate deals argue they offer long-term security, as unlike variable tariffs they cannot change throughout the duration of the deal. This could shield households from shocks in the wholesale market.

Analysts across the sector predict the cap will rise again when it is reviewed in October, meaning consumers who lock in at rates comparable to the current cap may end up saving money in the long run.

Dr Craig Lowrey, of Cornwall Insight, said: “This is not the news households want to hear when moving into the colder months. Following two consecutive falls in the cap, I’m sure many hoped we were on a steady path back to pre-crisis prices. However, the lingering impact of the energy crisis has left us with a market that’s still highly volatile and quick to react to any bad news on the supply front.

“Despite this, while we don’t expect a return to the extreme prices of recent years, it’s unlikely that bills will return to what was once considered normal. Without significant intervention, this may well be the new normal.”

Is now a good time to fix energy prices?

The main thing to understand when considering a fixed tariff is how the energy price cap is likely to change over the next 12 months/ the duration of the deal. It changes every three months, generally getting cheaper in the summer and more expensive over winter. You’ll need to weigh up whether you’ll stand to save money over the duration of the term.

The price cap from October 2024 to December 2024 is up 10pc to £1,717 a year, an additional £149. Predictions from British Gas suggest the price cap from 1 January 2025 could rise to £1,815 a year, and to £1,825 from 1 April. This is a “best estimate”, and can’t be guaranteed, but it can help to give a sense of what energy prices are expected to do next year.

Of course, as we’ve seen in the past, unexpected global events can have a dramatic knock-on effect on prices. British Gas notes that if conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East or Taiwan worsen then wholesale gas prices could go up, which would mean higher bills.

What’s the difference between fixed and variable energy?

A fixed tariff means your rate will stay the same for the duration of the contract you’ve signed up to; a standard variable tariff means the rate you pay will go up and down according to the price of energy.

Therefore, if you’re on a fixed tariff, changes to the energy price cap won’t affect you – your rate will stay the same until your contract ends. However, for those on variable rate tariffs, bills are likely to get more expensive if a higher price cap comes into force. 

What fixed energy deals are there?

Providers launch new deals regularly, so it’s worth checking in with comparison websites to see what the best value deal is for you.

One of the most competitive deals worth considering is the E.on Next Pledge, which is a variable tariff but it has a fixed discount off the energy price cap units. For 12 months, it will remain £50 less than the energy price cap – but you’ll need to be willing to get a smart meter, pay by direct debit and manage the account online. It’s for new and existing customers, and doesn’t charge any exit fees.

The EDF Energy Ensure tariff works in a similar way; it will also remain £50 cheaper than the price cap for 12 months for the term, and requires a smart meter. If you opt for deal-fuel, you’ll be charged £50 exit fees.

Other types of deals you might want to consider include:

One-year fixes

These are the most common deals. At the time of writing, no classic one-year fixes could beat the July price cap.

Longer-term fixes

Several providers offer two-year fixed tariffs, which might suit those who want the peace of mind of knowing their bills won’t be affected by price cap fluctuations. 

Price cap trackers

These deals will see rates change according to wholesale costs, so you’ll be in luck whenever costs fall but could quickly end up with pricier bills when they rise. 

Time of use tariffs

These can be good for anyone with an EV charger at home, as they allow you to charge up during cheaper off-peak rates. However, they can be more expensive at “peak” times – such as winter evenings – when there is most pressure on the Grid.

What is the energy price cap?

The price cap limits what energy providers can charge customers on a “standard variable tariff”. It does not apply to fixed-rate deals. Most households are currently on variable deals as providers were unable to offer competitive fixes throughout the energy crisis.

The cap is not a limit on the amount households will pay each year. The rate is based on usage – so use more, and you’ll pay more.

The cap is determined by wholesale costs and is revised every three months. The price cap rose from a low of £1,042 in February 2020 to £1,971 in April 2022. As Russia’s war in Ukraine intensified, driving up wholesale prices, the cap continued to rise – eventually reaching a peak of £4,279 in January 2023.

This prompted the Government to intervene in September 2022 by introducing the Energy Price Guarantee, a similar cap on energy bills that limited the average household bill to £2,500 a year regardless of the turmoil in the wholesale market.

From July 2023, when the Ofgem-set price cap finally fell below the government-backed EPG, households on variable deals automatically reverted to the former.

It is important to understand the price cap does not limit the amount you will pay over the year. The amount of energy a typical household uses in one year is known as the typical domestic consumption value (TDCV) – and the headline figure of £1,717 is simply how much the TDCV costs under current market rates.

The cap simply fixes the rates at which you are charged for your gas and electricity usage, as well as the standing charges for both.

Standing charges are billed to households at a daily rate regardless of how much energy they use – and these have shifted by less than a penny per day each so that households pay roughly £6.49 a week, or £338 a year for a house using electricity and gas.

How much more will I pay on my bills?

From October 1 to December 31, the unit rate for electricity will rise from 22.36p to 24.5p per kWh. Gas will rise from 5.48p to 6.24p per kWh.

In short, your electrical appliances will cost around 10pc more to run from October than they did previously, and your heating (if gas) will also cost around 14pc more.

To take an example of how the price cap affects your own usage, an electric kettle of water would have cost around 4p to boil under the current price cap, according to Citizens Advice’s electrical appliance cost calculator.

Let’s say you drink one cup of tea a day: Under the current cap, if you were to boil a fresh kettle of water for every cup, that would cost you £12.05 a year. Under the October cap, which lasts from October 1 to December 31, this will cost you £13.14 a year – an increase of £1.09, although costs can vary slightly depending on the power use of your kettle.

Electric showers will cost 18p for every five minutes, or £1.26 a week, assuming one shower a day – this doubles to £2.52 for 10-minute showers. A family of four doing this would rack up £10.08 a week on showers alone.

Washing machines, tumble dryers and dishwashers have always been the most expensive home appliances to run. A typical eco cycle on a fully loaded dishwasher will cost 23p and an hour’s ironing costs 36p on top of that.

One full cycle on a tumble dryer with a full load will cost £1.17 under new rates, while an eco cycle on a dishwasher will cost 31p, according to Citizens Advice.