Putin’s spring offensive in Ukraine has begun. Experts warn Trump has given Russia a window of alternative

With war raging in the Middle East, many, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, warned the conflict could hand Vladimir Putin a window of opportunity to accelerate his aggression against Ukraine.

Now, it appears those fears have come true with Russia launching its most brutal attack on the country since the war began on Tuesday, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

A barrage of nearly 1,000 drones were launched over a 24-hour period, killing at least six people. Russia launched 23 cruise missiles, seven ballistic missiles, hitting at least 10 locations, including a Unesco World Heritage site, according to Ukraine’s air force.

The onslaught affected 11 regions and seven cities were hit, marking it out as the largest aerial attack in a single day so far.

While Russia’s spring offensives have come to be expected around this time of year when weather conditions improve, peace talks have ground to a complete halt, and experts told The Independent that this could be Putin’s biggest opportunity yet.

“Ultimately the escalation in the Middle East has created a window of opportunity for Putin because the escalation has diverted attention away from Ukraine,” says Jaroslava Barbieri, a research fellow at the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House.

Air defence and system munitions being moved towards the Middle East leave Ukraine exposed and “more vulnerable to renewed aerial attacks” such as those we have seen this week, Barbieri warns. This is due to lower weapons supplies from countries including the US who will inevitably prioritise their own military operations against Iran.

Military assets rather than being moved to Ukraine through initiatives like PURL (Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List), which has allowed Nato European member states to purchase US equipment, are now being diverted to the Middle East.

“Some preliminary military analysis suggests that within the first few weeks of the war in the Middle East, the US has burned through these kind of munitions at a rate that is higher than what Ukraine has received over 4 years of full-scale war. If this pace were to continue, Ukraine will be facing vulnerabilities in its air defence.”

And all indications show that Ukraine is bunkering down for a years-long conflict, not laying the ground for an expected ceasefire, she says.

“Ukraine has to brace itself for more years of the war particularly if the US gets bogged down in the Middle East and therefore chooses, for example, to abandon the peace talks or sort of continue this imitation of progress.”

Reports also suggest that the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ensuing temporary spike in oil prices have created extra revenues for Russia, which it is using to fund its war effort, although Barbieri caveats that “we don’t know how long this extra injection of cash into Russia’s war machine might last.”

Russia has also been assisting Iran with satellite imagery and parts for weapons in order for it to continue to fight the US and Israel, according to some reports, but the Kremlin has denied the accusations.

Furthermore, temporary sanctions relief is helping Russian oil and gas revenues further fill the Kremlin’s coffers, Christina Haward at the Institute for the Study of War told The Independent.

Despite what the experts call the “theatre” of peace talks, Putin’s actions have demonstrated a staunch commitment to the attainment of his war objectives: annexation of part of Ukraine’s territory.

In light of this, Harward says that Putin has made clear his troops are “not going to stop attacking”.

“Continued attacks are actually part of his negotiating tactic,” she explains, shedding light on why the attacks could be worsening.

“He has been trying for over a year now to convince the US that the Ukrainian lines are about to collapse such that Kyiv should just capitulate now and save the time and blood spent on defending against further Russian aggression.

“These are false claims, but Putin is nonetheless going to try to use his spring-summer offensive to convince the US otherwise.

“Peace talks appear to have been stalling around two main issues: territorial concessions and security guarantees. The Kremlin has made zero concessions on either of these items, continuing to demand that Ukraine cede territory that it still controls and outright rejecting any sort of Western security guarantee for Ukraine.

Barbieri says that the “window of opportunity” afforded by both the improved weather and the deflection caused by the Iran war allows Russia to try “to push towards their heavily fortified fortress belt and cities, which is exactly that remaining part of the Donetsk region that Russia is still not controlling and that understandably Ukraine.”

Donetsk has remained a sticking point for both Russia and Ukraine in trilateral discussions and Putin has insisted on seizing the entirety of the strategic region.

But Harward suggests that Russia may not make progress as quickly as it wants, particularly if the war in Iran were to end before summer.

“Russian forces are unlikely to move anywhere fast on the battlefield in the spring-summer campaign,” she explains.

“Their advances in the past year have been creeping and slow, and this is unlikely to change in the near future.

“Russia is unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast soon but will very likely suffer high casualties trying. Ukrainian forces have been inflicting increasingly high casualties on Russia, so if anything this may be a very costly offensive for Russia.”

Despite the ruthlessness of Russia’s campaign, John Lough, a former Nato representative in Moscow and an expert at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST), says that Ukraine may have more of the advantage in the long-run.

“The Kremlin hoped that Trump would twist Zelensky’s arm hard enough to force him to sue for peace, but Trump has not delivered. The brutal winter air campaign that focused on destroying Ukraine’s power generation system has not persuaded Ukrainian society that it is time to stop fighting.

“So, Putin is back at square one and is relying on the Russian army to grind forward and capture the fortress towns in Donbas. The Ukrainians have the advantage of the defender and seem more confident than before the winter that they can keep the Russians at bay in 2026.”

Nevertheless, for an already exhausted nation, Barbieri adds: “It’s a very delicate moment for Ukraine”.

Source: independent.co.uk