Is Brazil abandoning its local weather guarantees?
When President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office in early 2023, environmentalists breathed a sigh of relief. After four years of environmental destruction under his far-right predecessor Jair Bolsonaro, the new leader arrived on a pledge to protect the climate.
Fast forward two years, and that relief has turned to disappointment. Just months before Brazil is due to host the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), Lula is pushing for oil exploration at the mouth of the Amazon River, and his government has approved joining the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+).
“The world has given Brazil a mandate to lead the climate debate in 2025,” said Claudio Angelo, coordinator of communications at Brazilian nonprofit Observatorio do Clima. “To double down on oil expansion is a betrayal of that mandate.”
Is Brazil doubling down on its oil industry?
Brazil has vast reserves of oil and ranks as the eighth-largest global exporter — behind such countries as Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US. But the government is looking to increase its oil share and move up into fourth place.
“We should not be ashamed of being oil producers,” said Brazil’s energy minister, Alexandre Silveira, upon announcing the country’s plans to join OPEC+. “Brazil needs to grow, develop and create income and jobs.”
OPEC brings together major oil-producing countries, including Iran, Iraq, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, to coordinate the production of oil and maintain a stable market. Other significant producers, the largest of which is Russia, are not full members, but agree to cooperate with nations as part of OPEC+.
Speaking to reporters during a recent press briefing, Andre Correa do Lago, president-designate of the upcoming COP30 climate summit, said joining OPEC+ gives Brazil the chance to be involved in conversations on transitioning away from oil.
Though Brazil will not be a full member of OPEC, environmentalists have criticized the move, arguing that it cements the country’s oil ambitions for the future.
Lula has argued, however, that oil revenues are needed to help finance a green energy transition.
Correa do Lago reiterated this line, saying it is easier and cheaper to borrow money to invest in oil projects than in other more sustainable ones.
The money “you gain from exploring oil can be used internally for projects that are good for the [clean energy] transition,” he said.
Is Brazil embracing renewables?
Ilan Zugman, Latin American managing director of environmental campaign organization 350.org, rejects the government’s argument. He says there is currently no national policy for a further move to renewables and that even if there were, money for such a transition could be funneled from other sources.
“Brazil every year gives billions and billions of dollars to subsidize the fossil fuel industry…we’d like to see Brazil shifting some of these subsidies from fossil fuels to renewables,” he told DW.
According to a report from the nonprofit scientific and technological institution INESC P&D Brazil, federal subsidies for the production and consumption of oil, gas and coal reached around $14.56 billion (€13.3 billion) in 2022. That’s five times more than is invested in renewables.
“The money is there; it is just not being put in the right places,” said Zugman. “And of course, we’re still missing the political will, the courage to make some bold decisions and start shifting these resources to an energy that can improve our situation of carbon emissions in the world.”
Is President Lula really a climate leader?
Brazil is the world’s sixth biggest greenhouse gas emitter, with deforestation and changing land use within the Amazon region accounting for a majority of the country’s emissions. The Amazon is the world’s largest tropical rainforest and a significant carbon sink.
Following his 2022 electoral victory, Lula promised to rein in the illegal logging, mining and land clearing for activities like cattle ranches and soybean farms that had become commonplace under his predecessor.
In the first six months of Lula’s tenure, deforestation fell by around a third and has continued to decrease. The president pledged to end tree felling in the Amazon by the end of the decade.
The country’s bid to host the COP30 summit in the Amazon city of Belem was seen as further evidence of the government’s commitment to climate. So too, Brazil’s timely submission of its latest climate goals, which are required by signatories of the Paris climate accord. The agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit).
Brazil’s targets promise an emissions cut of between 59% and 67% over 2005 levels by 2035.
“That’s frankly not that ambitious,” Angelo of Observatorio do Clima said. “It’s nowhere near compatible with 1.5 [degrees].”
The goals also do not include any targets on oil exports, the burning of which doesn’t count towards Brazil’s emissions, but will have an impact globally.
Researchers from SEEG, a major greenhouse gas monitoring platform in Latin America, say that if Brazil were to exploit projected reserves, the emissions from their burning would cancel out the savings made through reducing Amazon deforestation.
The impacts of climate change are felt in Brazil
Brazil is facing some of the most devastating consequences of climate change. In the last year alone, the country experienced its worst drought on record and wildfires ravaged an area of around 30.86 million hectares in 2024, an area larger than Italy.
World Weather Attribution, a collective of scientists investigating the connection between extreme weather and global heating, found human-driven climate change made wildfires that burned through the Pantanal wetland in June 2024 at least four times more likely and 40% more intense.
“People [in Brazil] are literally feeling the heat,” said Angelo. “This is not lost to the presidency. They know what is at stake. But right now the mix of domestic and geopolitical issues is making the agenda very cloudy.”
Edited by: Tamsin Walker
