In Europe, Trump is a godsend for some, for others a nightmare
ROME – In their first collective move since Donald Trump’s dramatic election victory, European leaders on Thursday called for a far bigger emphasis on defense spending — the first of what is sure to be many strategic maneuvers as the former president prepares to return to the White House.
Most leaders in Europe were hesitant to take a strong public stand in the run-up to the U.S. vote. But now that Mr. Trump is on his way to a second term, they’re busy reaching out to the Republican’s camp and trying to protect themselves from possible disruptions to come.
First came a mad scramble to congratulate the president-elect in the early hours of Wednesday morning. For the record, French President Emmanuel Macron was the first to do so, a few minutes before Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — both well before the race had officially been called by U.S. media.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been among the most vocal leaders on the continent hailing Mr. Trump’s victory and the policy shifts it is likely to bring. He intimated on social media Wednesday that he and the president-elect have already begun preparing their first steps.
“Mar-a-Lago calling,” Mr. Orban wrote on his X account, referencing Mr. Trump’s Florida home. “Just had my first phone conversation with President Trump since the elections. We have big plans for the future!”
Then came the practical reactions: Thursday’s calls for more European autonomy on defense came from a summit in Budapest organized to shore up support for Ukraine as the country’s war against Russia approaches its third anniversary.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly said he would quickly end the conflict, most likely by halting or curtailing U.S. support for the struggling Ukrainian forces. Vice President Kamala Harris, who Mr. Trump vanquished in Tuesday’s vote, was widely expected to continue the strongly pro-Kyiv policies of the Biden administration, including tens of billions of dollars in economic and military aid to Ukraine.
While the fate of Ukraine and the prospect of an emboldened President Vladimir Putin in Russia weighs heavily on European leaders, analysts say the odds are increasingly likely that the endgame there for U.S.-European relations will be played out with an increasingly influential European right.
“Trump’s victory certainly gives the right-wing parties in Europe new legitimacy,” Gregory Alegi, a historian and political scientist with Rome’s LUISS University, told The Washington Times. “I think we’ll see the right-wing parties already in power have more influence and some of the more fringe parties will start to be seen as closer to the mainstream.”
How Mr. Trump’s ideological soulmates on the European right will treat Ukraine is far from clear.
Mr, Orban, the host of Thursday’s European security summit and a long-time Trump ally, is the most pro-Russian leader in the European Union. Ms. Meloni of Italy, meanwhile, may be Europe’s most ardent supporter of Ukrainian resistance and has volunteered to host next year’s leaders’ summit on Ukrainian support.
Both Mr. Orban and Ms. Meloni are vying for the unofficial position of Europe’s “Trump whisperer” — the leader most able to understand and perhaps influence White House policy.
Self-reliance
A common message of the European summit leaders appeared to be that Mr. Trump’s “America First” policies meant Europeans must be prepared to do more for themselves. Washington, they fear, will be unable or unwilling to help economically, diplomatically or militarily as it has for decades.
Mr. Macron of France, a centrist, had a love-hate relationship with Mr. Trump during the American’s first term in office, and his quickness in congratulating Mr. Trump and his statements in Budapest Thursday may show an eagerness on his part to serve as a trans-Atlantic bridge.
“Donald Trump was elected by the Americans to defend the interests of the Americans,” Mr. Macron said Thursday. “The question arises for us Europeans is whether we are ready to defend the interest of Europeans.”
Charles Michel, head of the 27-nation EU’s executive arm in Brussels, agreed that the continent needed to become less reliant on the United States.
“We have to be more masters of our destiny,” he told the Associated Press. “Not because of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, but because of our children.”
Ukraine is not the only area of concern for European conservatives, who are also expressing concern over the future role of NATO (Mr. Trump has questioned support for NATO member states that spend too little on defense and has said he could even pull the U.S. out of the alliance) and on trade (Mr. Trump has threatened across-the-board tariffs on goods the U.S. imports).
Mr. Orban is by no means the only prominent ally the new Trump administration will have in Europe. Conservative populist parties are in power or in coalition governments in the Netherlands and Slovakia, and just scored a historic electoral breakthrough in Austria.
According to Georgina Wright, deputy director for International Studies at Paris’ Institut Montaigne, Mr. Trump’s victory and the unpredictability that brings for Europe that brings with it should in theory act as a unifying force among European leaders, though it was likely it could do the opposite.
“The election should unite Europe,” Ms. Wright said in an interview. “But that does not mean Europe will actually unite.”
Some are already predicting Europe’s divisions will only increase the dependence on the U.S. of individual countries, who will have to learn to collaborate on Mr. Trump’s terms, at least for the next four years.
“Expect Europeans to flock to Mar-A-Lago in droves to demand preferential treatment over their neighbors,” former French Ambassador to the U.S. Gerard Araud, noted on social media Thursday.
