How shut are we to optimistic local weather tipping factors?

Tipping points have often become synonymous with climate collapse. But for scientists researching how societies can achieve sustainable change with today’s knowledge and technology, tipping points can also be positive.

Transformation researchers like Ilona M. Otto, of the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change in Graz, Austria, believe societies can introduce social changes that would help bring about a rapid green transition.

“We are talking about parts of society where rapid change is possible,” said Otto. “Where we do have some degree of agency, and we can intervene in the system and push it in a desired direction.”

When everyday choices around eating meat, using clean energy and driving electric vehicles are picked up by small committed groups, they can set new norms and behavior standards across societies, she said.

In a 2020 paper, Otto and her colleagues focused on six key areas that could be targeted, including energy production, financial markets, cities and education.

But these system changes often need interventions like targeted government policies or market incentives to get going. “Enthusiasm” is also important “for collective action, to bring people together,” she said.

Cities could accelerate major change

Cities, home to more than half of the world’s population, generate roughly 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to a 2022 estimate from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

But the UN expert group also believes urban areas can lead the way in reducing emissions by lowering energy use and electrifying transport.

Adrian Hiel, who works on policy and media campaigns for Energy Cities, a network promoting the switch to climate-neutral cities, pointed to positive trends in urban transportation in Europe.

“Cycling is the big one,” he said, pointing out how the COVID pandemic, in particular, accelerated a shift to bikes in places like Brussels, Barcelona and especially Paris.

“That’s a massive tipping point,” he said, adding that it helped to make the shift acceptable for other cities.

“The more examples you have, the easier it becomes to overcome that obstacle,” he explained.

The spread of electric vehicles and solar panels in cities over the past decade likely also benefited from people showing how easy it was to make the switch.

“It’s a different world when it’s your neighbors talking about their passion than a company trying to sell you something,”  said, adding that addressing buildings-related emissions would benefit from the same approach.

Keeping buildings heated and comfortable accounts for around half the EU’s energy every year, according to the European Environment Agency, resulting in substantial carbon emissions. While heat pumps and district heating networks are proven technologies, their cost is often off-putting.

“It is first and foremost a social challenge,” said Hiel. “And that takes work, whether it’s doing online surveys, going door to door — you have to put in the time and energy to listen to those people or you won’t get the social transformation you need that will lead to the physical transformation you need.”

Focus on ‘health and well-being’ can inspire green shift

Roughly 12% of global greenhouse gas emissions are generated by farming, and agribusiness and the meat industry are also major drivers of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. And if you factor in aspects such as land clearing, the loss of peat bogs and the production of fertilizer, that number shoots up to around 30%. 

But in some parts of the world — mostly in the West — people are eating less meat, due to health reasons, environmental concerns or both. In Germany, for example — a country known for its sausages and schnitzels — meat consumption has fallen over the past decade, while plant-based alternatives continue to gain popularity.

“Many of the changes we are talking about, like active mobility and eating less meat, actually have a positive influence on human health and well-being,” Otto told DW. “This could also be a potential social tipping element.”

But replacing energy-intensive meat with alternative proteins derived from, for example, insects, plants and lab-grown cells is still a hard sell for many.

Luigi Tozzi, deputy director of SAFE, a European consumers NGO that works in part to reduce the environmental impact of the food sector also pointed out the potential health risks of some ultra-processed meat alternatives, highlighting the findings of a recent WHO study, though he added there was still limited data in this area.

Tozzi said cost is also holding back many from opting for organic food that’s better for the environment. High food prices, due in part to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel and the lingering effects of COVID, are forcing people to choose between the ecological choice and just having enough to eat.

“People, especially now, in this period where there are many families in need, they are not thinking about sustainability,” said Tozzi. “They’re just thinking about how they can afford food.” 

Education ‘critical’ for building sustainable future

For Otto, a greater focus on climate change and ecological networks in schools, especially in the fields of economics and business, also has the potential for rapid change.

In her 2020 report, she highlighted the shift in norms and values sparked by the schoolchildren-led Fridays for Future climate strikes, which went on to influence policies around the world.

Lennart Kuntze, a climate education expert at global nonprofit Teach For All, said climate change needs to be a part of the curriculum at all levels.

“We really need to build the collective action rather than focusing on individual actions,” said Kuntze, adding that what starts in the classroom has the potential to influence the greater community.

The Teach for All initiative, now in more than 60 countries around the world, is only a few years old. However Kuntze said it has already had an impact.

In Zimbabwe, for example, climate clubs have launched recycling campaigns and grow food for the community.

Meanwhile in Bulgaria, a school’s photovoltaic system helped introduce a sustainable city design for the larger neighborhood.

And in Lebanon, many of the children who took part in the program went on to study environmental topics at university.

Citing other programs like UNESCO’s Greening Education Partnership, Kuntze believes society is starting to realize the value of climate education. But to go mainstream, he said we needed to develop “an inclusive vision of the future” that prioritizes shared values and positive change — rather than a story driven by the fear of climate collapse.

“What is the kind of world we want in 2050? What is the kind of world we want in 2070? What are we working toward rather than what are we working against?” Kuntze asked.

“Education is a really critical piece of that, in that we can build that together with students and start imagining together with them what’s possible.”

Edited by: Tamsin Walker

Sources:

Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth’s climate by 2050
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900577117

The Breakthrough Effect, January 2023
https://www.systemiq.earth/breakthrough-effect/