China’s nuclear arsenal could surpass U.S. estimates, professional warns

China’s rapid buildup of nuclear assets could be much larger than current U.S. government assessments, according to former Pentagon strategic affairs analyst Mark B. Schneider.

Beijing is engaged in the world’s largest missile modernization program, and its nuclear delivery vehicle program is the most visible aspect of what has been called a nuclear “breakout” by American military commanders.

“With the exception of the possibly dual-capable (nuclear and conventional) DF-27 [intercontinental ballistic missile/intermediate-range ballistic missile], all Chinese strategic missiles are nuclear armed,” Mr. Schneider said in an article in the Journal of Policy and Strategy.

Annual Pentagon reports on the Chinese military provide the most authoritative counts of China’s military, but “have a poor record in assessing China’s nuclear threat,” he said.

“In combination, the 2022 and 2023 [Department of Defense] reports stated that China had 500+ ‘operational’ nuclear warheads in May 2023, growing to 1,000+ ‘operational’ warheads in 2030, and is ‘on track to exceed previous projections,’ i.e., about 1,500 warheads in 2035,” Mr. Schneider said.

These estimates may significantly undercount the Chinese nuclear arsenal, but if the projections are accurate, it still means that China will reach rough numerical nuclear parity with the United States by the mid-2030s.

“If the [Defense Department] is wrong, China may achieve superiority — several thousand nuclear weapons — within a few years,” said Mr. Schneider, senior analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy, which publishes the journal. That would mean the U.S. military will be much less capable of deterring China than the deterrence calculus based on Pentagon estimates.

China’s long-range missiles are being outfitted with multiple warheads, with newer systems capable of carrying up to 10 warheads.

Recent Pentagon reports may have also substantially undercounted the number of Chinese nuclear weapons carried by bombers.

Mr. Schneider concludes that the aggressive Chinese nuclear buildup is neither defense-based nor intended to deter aggressors.

“Rather, it coincides with Beijing’s aggressive, expansionist policies in which nuclear weapons provide coercive leverage for regional expansion and the ultimate means in war-fighting strategies,” he said. “China already has enough modern systems to deploy thousands of nuclear weapons now. … The 2035 estimate of 1,500 Chinese nuclear warheads … may turn out to be very low.

“Additionally, Chinese secrecy and deception, the difficulties in counting mobile missiles, and the concealment of underground facilities may result in the United States “failing to grasp the full scope of Chinese nuclear systems,” Mr. Schneider said.

The Pentagon has also been unwilling to acknowledge that “U.S. policy has misjudged China, being optimistic in the extreme, and remains lethargic as China achieves a larger, more modern and sometimes more capable force than the Cold War-legacy American nuclear deterrent,” he said.

“It appears to seek nuclear superiority to preclude American support to its allies against Chinese attack and assure Chinese victory in a future war.”