Why Trump is taking a dangerous wager on Iran, however may lose on all counts | DW News
The ceasefire between the US and Iran has collapsed, deepening fears of a wider conflict in the Gulf. Both sides are carrying out daily attacks and escalating their rhetoric, with Iran threatening devastating strikes against Gulf states and President Donald Trump warning to attack Iran’s infrastructure. Security experts say the confrontation may be entering a new phase focused on the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments. DW asks political scientist Robert Pape, University of Chicago, who has the upperhand in the Iran war now.
Chapter Breakdown
0:00 Trump’s threat to knock out Iran’s power plants and infrastructure
0:43 Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science, Author of the "Escalation Trap" Substack, on why the US-Israeli war with Iran could be entering Stage Three of the escalation trap, called the "ground power dilemma"
2:16 Conflict taking on a momentum of its own in ground power dilemma stage
3:46 The US does not control the Strait of Hormuz
5:08 Pape’s warning that US troops could seize the Strait and Kharg island
5:57 Trump’s political desperation due to his MAGA base
7:04 Iran’s targeting of US bases in region could lead to US leaving its military bases in the Middle East
8:30 Military case for the war is not there, conflict can only be solved diplomatically
9:06 Is Iran’s short-term ability to cause disruption an indication that it is becoming a regional hegemon?
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