Trump’s North Korea coverage might pose ‘traumatic’ danger for South Korea

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea could face some critical strategic choices if incoming U.S. President Donald Trump resumes his diplomatic outreach to North Korea and recognizes Pyongyang as a nuclear state, top security analysts say.

In a briefing to reporters Monday, the head of South Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy said U.S. recognition of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction programs would be “traumatic.” The INSS, a civilian think tank, is affiliated with the government’s National Intelligence Service.

The analysts made clear that a second Trump administration offers possibilities as well as risks for the divided peninsula, depending on the approaches of Mr. Trump’s national security and diplomatic teams. The first Trump administration’s demand that North Korea give up its nuclear programs in exchange for economic aid and sanctions relief led to a breakdown of Mr. Trump’s diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

“If the U.S. approves North Korea as a nuclear state in any form, that would be really traumatic for South Korea,” said INSS President Han Suk-hee. “For the past 30 to 40 years, South Korea has been in cooperation with the U.S.-led denuclearization and nonproliferation regimes. … If the U.S. approves North Korea as a nuclear state, South Korea will be a victim.”

For years, North Korea watchers have maintained that the Kim regime will never abandon atomic arms because it considers them a last guarantee of national survival. That position has been reinforced multiple times by Mr. Kim and is written into the national constitution.

Mr. Kim has yet to comment directly on the American election, but he hinted at a tough line in case the Trump administration plans to renew security talks.

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“We have already gone as far as possible with the United States with negotiations,” Mr. Kim told a defense exposition in Pyongyang last week. “And what we ended up confirming was not a superpower’s will for coexistence, but a thorough position based on force and an unchangeable invasive and hostile policy” toward North Korea.

The United States has consistently refused to acknowledge this status, likely because it would be an impossible sell to American voters. Virtually all high-level U.S. contacts with Pyongyang have been predicated on the North renouncing its nuclear weapons programs.

Some call that approach a recipe for failure and argue in favor of officially recognizing North Korea’s weapons program. A shift away from total denuclearization to arms control would give talks higher chances of success, these experts say.

Mr. Trump has made clear his distaste for multinational organizations and agreements. His stance toward the U.N.-led Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, is unclear.

“We don’t think President-elect Trump respects the NPT or other multilateral agreements,” said Ha Kyoung-seok, part of the INSS’s new “Trump Risk Team.” “He has not explicitly or publicly expressed a position on the NPT, as that would limit his future movements.”

Mr. Trump has talked up his extraordinary personal relationship with Mr. Kim, but he humiliated the North Korean leader by walking out of their second face-to-face summit in Hanoi in 2019 when talks reached an impasse.

That cost Mr. Kim a massive amount of “face” with his elites and broader populace. Since 2019, U.S.-North Korean relations have been primarily frozen, with minimal contact under President Biden.

Bigger carrots

Pyongyang’s global footing is firmer than ever with Mr. Kim’s new ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin. North Korea has sent troops and weapons to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine in exchange for economic, security and diplomatic aid.

South Korean security experts said Mr. Trump must dangle a larger carrot to lure Mr. Kim into new talks. That carrot, in turn, could spark soul-searching in South Korea over its security policies and its ability to rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella to protect it in the long run.

“To ignite active discussions, Trump has to meet [Mr. Kim] and approve North Korea as a nuclear state,” said Mr. Han. “If that happens, South Korean people will approve and agree on our own nuclear weapons system.”

Polls in recent years have found deep support among South Koreans for a nuclear weapon. Conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol has mentioned it but has been assuaged by the Biden administration’s extension of the U.S. nuclear umbrella and establishment of a bilateral nuclear-sharing group.

Whether the unconventional Mr. Trump would agree to a South Korean exit from the nonproliferation treaty to become the world’s next nuclear state is a big question.

Opportunities

Along with the challenges, a second Trump administration represents an opportunity for Seoul.

In his first call with Mr. Yoon, the U.S. president-elect raised the issue of maintaining and repairing U.S. warships in South Korea’s world-class shipyards.

Mr. Ha said that the containment of China is central to Mr. Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy and that he will be “open to all options.” In that strategy, South Korea has an ace in the hole: It offers the U.S. military its closest geographical posting to mainland China.

The 28,000 American soldiers in South Korea have left positions facing North Korea and redeployed to bases lining the Yellow Sea Coast south of Seoul. U.S. Army and Air Force garrisons also have maritime access via a South Korean naval base.

Though the U.S. troops in South Korea are officially tasked with deterring a North Korean attack, the command’s current footprint offers unrestricted radar, aerial, naval and direct-fire access to crucial naval shipyards and naval bases on China’s eastern seaboard.

Mr. Trump is a proponent of more defense spending by U.S. allies. During his first term, his demand for more funding for U.S. troops in Japan and South Korea raised tensions. In his second, South Korea might be able to use its geostrategic position to its advantage.

The Trump administration is “likely to use U.S. Forces Korea as a critical component of its China containment strategy,” said Mr. Han. “This underscores the need for South Korea to pursue de-risking strategies and explore new approaches.”

Mr. Ha expects Mr. Trump to get along well with Mr. Yoon, who has focused on improving relations with Japan. That has boosted a long-held U.S. hope of upgrading the trilateral defense relationship.

“There are high expectations in the U.S. about [Mr. Yoon],” Mr. Ha said. “Many persons say, in Asia, there was Shinzo Abe in Trump’s first term, and there is Yoon Suk Yeol during his second term.” Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, boosted Japan’s defenses and forged a close relationship with Mr. Trump.

Mr. Yoon has reportedly resumed playing golf after an eight-year hiatus to cultivate relations with the U.S. president-elect.

“Making intimate and personal relations by playing golf can be an important diplomatic route,” Mr. Ha said.

Beyond the security domain, economic relations could be tense. Mr. Trump has promised new tariffs on imports from adversaries and allies alike, and the U.S. is the largest single market for South Korean exports.

Mr. Trump “is likely to separate security and economy,” said Go Myong-hyun, another INSS researcher. “Japan and South Korea have trade surpluses with the U.S., and President-elect Trump may want to focus on this.”