Trump’s commerce struggle might hit Britain, warns Bank of England ratesetter

European Central Bank policymakers were divided at their meeting last month about the risks of inflation coming in too low over a sustained period, according to minutes released today.

The ECB lowered rates in October after also cutting the previous month. These were its first back-to-back reductions in the current easing cycle, as eurozone growth worries increasingly outweigh inflation concerns.

Data released before the last meeting showed eurozone consumer prices rose by 1.7pc in September, the first time in three years the figure had dipped below the central bank’s two-percent target.

That fired debate about whether the ECB had waited too long to start cutting borrowing costs, and whether there was now a risk of inflation falling well below target for a long time.

At the October meeting, while policymakers agreed inflation would settle at around two percent earlier than previous forecasts for the end of 2025, some argued that “a large, persistent undershooting” of the target was unlikely.

Factors needed to cause it were not present, such as “disappointing economic growth that moved into recessionary territory, a weakening in the financial system, wage pressures fading away”, according to the account of the gathering.

Others however worried that recent falls in inflation had been stronger than expected and said there was “an increasing risk of undershooting the target in the course of 2025, possibly in a sustained manner”.

“This could now be seen as a greater risk than overshooting the target,” they believed.

Since the ECB’s last meeting however, data have been released showing that eurozone inflation rose to two percent in October, more strongly than expected.

ING economist Carsten Brzeski said the minutes showed concerns about the weak eurozone economy were now clearly overtaking those about inflation.