Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest ballot updates from the 2024 election
In less than 50 days, Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.
As Trump reels from a second assassination attempt, this time at his own West Palm Beach golf club, the candidates are preparing for an intense final stretch of the campaign, with the needle ready to swing either way.
Polls following last week’s presidential debate show that while Harris “won,” neither candidate saw a real boost or loss in support; and Trump still holds public trust on key issues, including the Israel-Hamas war.
So how will Harris and Trump fare in November?
Harris has a 2.6-point lead over Trump in the latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls.
However, a new poll — taken from September 11-13 following Tuesday’s debate— shows that Harris has a +4 point lead over Trump among registered voters.
The nationwide poll from ABC News and Ipsos of 2,772 registered voters has Harris at 51 percent of the vote, and Trump at 47 percent.
Yet this remains unchanged from before the debate, when Harris already had a 4-point margin in the same poll; in fact, both candidates received a +1-point boost from their debate performances.
On major issues, trust for Harris and Trump is split down the line.
The same ABC News poll shows that Americans believe Trump will better handle the economy, inflation and immigration, while Harris is more trusted on health care, gun violence, and abortion, among other issues.
The economy remains the most important factor for many voters, with an Independent analysis showing that economic issues are pivotal for independent voters in many key states.
As we near the 1-year mark of the October 7 Hamas terror attack on Israel, Americans say they are more confident (+6 percent) in Trump’s ability to handle the Israel-Hamas war; though only half of Americans view the war as important to their vote.
The debate
All polls so far suggest that Harris won the debate in the eyes of voters, and a longtime Republican pollster has warned that this spells doom for Trump.
Perhaps most significantly, half of independent voters believe Harris won the debate, according to a Reuters poll. This is a significant 180 from June’s Biden-Trump faceoff, when 62 percent viewed Trump as the winner.
Meanwhile, a third (31 percent) of Republicans said that neither candidate won the debate; compared to just 6 percent of Democrats, and a quarter of voters overall (24 percent).
The debate certainly knocked some confidence from Republicans. However, whether this will have any impact on their voting choice, remains to be seen.
Make sense of the US election with The Independent’s experts in our exclusive virtual event ‘Harris vs. Trump: who will make history?’ Reserve your space here.
Where do they stand?
CNN’s snap poll following the first Trump-Harris debate shows that Harris managed to turn the tide with some voters.
In the wake of the debate, more voters now believe Harris better understands the issues of people like them (44 percent) compared to Trump (40 percent). Before the debate, the opposite was true.
Another poll earlier this week (pre-debate) from The New York Times/Siena College found that former president Trump was leading Harris overall by a slim +1-point margin, at 48 percent to 47 percent.
This same poll showed that nearly a third of voters (28 per cent) felt they needed to learn more about Harris, compared to 9 per cent who would say the same about Trump.
Though it is too soon to say, the candidates’ debate performances may have turned this around.
Dwindling approval ratings
A set of polls from YouGov and The Economist, carried out right before the debate (up to September 10), found that no major politicians are winning the hearts of voters.
Every presidential candidate is in the red, with voters holding a net unfavorable opinion to different degrees.
The only candidate who has come out more unscathed is Democratic VP pick Tim Walz, who holds a neutral favorability rating.
Though Harris is overall at -3, some 48 percent of voters hold a favorable opinion of her, which is higher than any other major politician.
Incumbent President Biden is suffering the worst of all, with 56 percent of voters viewing him unfavorably, amounting to a -13 net negative score.
State-by-state
The pre-debate Morning Consult poll shows substantial variation in presidential support among 14 states, with Trump and Harris tied in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Each state tells a different story, however. A new set of polls from Morning Consult surveyed voters in 14 states up to September 8, finding that Harris has the strongest lead in Maryland, with a +32 point margin. For Trump, his strongest lead is in Texas, at +8 points over Harris.
The two candidates are tied in Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, while Trump has only a +2 point lead in Florida, smaller than in most polls in recent months.
Trump also leads by +2 points in Arizona, a state that has voted Republican in every presidential election since the 1950s — except 2020, when Biden won the state by 0.3 per cent.
Independents
In particular, our analysis of the above Morning Consult poll shows that independent voters in Texas and Florida are leaning towards Harris, despite both states being Trump strongholds.
In a pivotal shift, Harris also leads Trump by +7.7 per cent among independent voters, according to a new poll from Emerson College (up to September 4).
Capturing the independent vote will be crucial for either Harris or Trump to take the lead in this election. This is also the most likely group to vote for a third-party candidate, though with RFK Jr out of the race, this has dwindled to just 4 per cent of independents.
The nationwide Emerson College poll has 49.5 percent of independents saying they would vote for Harris, compared to 41.8 percent for Trump.
This is a substantial jump from the same poll one month ago, which showed Harris just inching ahead of Trump (46 percent to 45 percent) among independent voters.
However, 5 percent of independent voters say they are still undecided, and the elusive voter group is difficult to pin down, with higher variation between polls and regions than other demographics. Nonetheless, Harris can be credited with mobilizing the non-partisan voter base, whose support is much stronger since Biden dropped out.
Demographics
An Activote poll shows that Trump’s key supporters remain male voters, those 65+, and white voters with no college education.
However, Harris and Trump are tied in the 50-64 age group in this poll, which previously leaned toward Trump.
Harris polls best with young voters, female voters, and Black voters, among whom Harris has a +52 point lead.
Meanwhile, Trump has a +6 point lead with Latino voters.
While Trump is taking home rural voters, at 63 percent, Harris leads among both urban-resident (58 percent) and suburban voters (56 percent).
Suburban voters chose Trump over Hilary Clinton in 2016, while in 2020, Biden flipped the lead for Democrats.
Source: independent.co.uk