Artificial intelligence poses new issues for Chinese navy command
NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
China’s People’s Liberation Army has built an impressive array of advanced weapons and forces, in what American military commanders have called the largest military buildup since World War II.
But Chinese generals and admirals charged with using those forces lack an effective command structure, one saddled by communist commissars who share equal power with operational commanders, and the problem will worsen with the increasing use of artificial intelligence arms, according to a new report by a China military affairs expert.
Larry Wortzel, a retired Army officer and China expert who was a former military attache in Beijing, stated in the report that recent promises made to President Biden by Chinese President Xi Jinping on the responsible use of military AI tools are contradicted by Chinese military writings that reveal plans for extensive, unrestrained robot weapons.
China is actively developing AI-powered weapons, including autonomous drones, tanks, ships and submarines. It has already shown off quadruped robot dogs armed with machine guns.
An analysis of Chinese military writings on AI warfare revealed that the Chinese military is actively working to integrate the technology into its new weapons and warfighting techniques.
Mr. Wortzel, now with the American Foreign Policy Council, says that despite the military buildup, Chinese military commanders face a significant problems in matching the American military’s ability to integrate AI warfare into its operations. A major problem is that China’s political commissars — charged with enforcing Marxist-Leninist ideological orthodoxy in the ranks — have equal authority with commanders charged with warfighting.
The two types of leadership render effective, rapid and joint military operations much more difficult for China’s military, a shortcoming revealed in military writings, Mr. Wortzel said. The dual structure system will create even greater command problems for China “as AI systems increasingly demand, rapid, decentralized responses.”
Mr. Wortzel said in an email that China’s military hopes AI will improve decision-making and precision strikes.
“However, implementation is spotty and the PLA’s dual command structure, making Party political commissars equal to commanders, may hinder rapid AI decision making,” he said.
The shortcomings are highlighted by the purge over the past decade of numerous senior Chinese military officers, most recently the senior ideological commissar, Adm. Miao Hua, who was part of the powerful Central Military Commission. Adm. Hua was charged in November with unspecified “serious violations of discipline” — often a euphemism for corruption or deviation from the Communist Party’s official positions.
China’s military is also pursuing contradictory policies on its AI military integration, Mr. Wortzel argues.
Mr. Xi has agreed with Mr. Biden, most recently in a meeting in Peru in November, to keep nuclear weapons control out of AI-powered systems.
“Yet at operational and tactical levels, PLA writings reveal an aggressive push toward AI-enabled ‘kill chains’ and autonomous systems,” Mr. Wortzel said. “This bifurcation may create dangerous uncertainties in crisis situations, particularly if adversaries misread which domains are governed by human decisionmaking vs. AI systems.”
Chinese commanders will need to overcome significant organization and cultural barriers for AI technology to improve the military’s ability to fight, he said.
“However, the PLA’s distinct institutional characteristics — its dual command structure, emphasis on political control, and relatively limited combat experience — suggest that its integration of AI may follow a uniquely Chinese path rather than simply mimicking U.S. approaches,” Mr. Wortzel said.
The report, “Artificial Intelligence and its Influence in Chinese Military Thought and Operations,” was published Dec. 31 in the journal Defense Dossier.
U.S. completes nuclear gravity bomb upgrade
The warplane-dropped nuclear gravity bomb known as the B61 has been fully modernized with a new precision guidance system, the Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration, or NNSA, announced this week.
The B61-12 replaces several earlier variants of the bomb after more than a decade of life-extension work costing $9 billion. An estimated 500 of the nuclear bombs are deployed with the Air Force for use in Asia or from NATO bases in Europe.
“The B61 family of bombs has over 50 years of service, making it the oldest and most versatile weapon in the enduring U.S. nuclear weapon stockpile,” the NNSA said in a brief statement Tuesday.
The NNSA sees the bomb upgrade as critical to bolstering aircraft-delivered nuclear arms. The bombs can be dropped from F-35 and F-16 jets and B-1 bombers. The new B-21 strategic bomber will also be able to deliver the bombs.
The modernized bomb includes greater accuracy from a new “tail kit assembly,” likely modeled after those used by conventional Joint Direct Attack Munitions kits that turn “dumb bombs” into precision-guided weapons. The bomb also has “a substantial reduction in yield, with no overall change in military characteristics,” the statement said.
Reported yield for the bomb will be adjustable to between 0.3 and 50 kilotons. A kiloton is the equivalent of 1,000 tons of TNT.
Earlier variants used a parachute to slow the bomb’s descent and allow detonation above ground.
All the earlier variants were combined into the new B61-12, which has greater reliability with improved arming, fusing and firing and eliminating the parachute that will provide for safer separation from aircraft.
As reported by Inside the Ring in 2009, Congress tried to cut funding for modernizing the B61, the oldest tactical nuclear weapon in the U.S. arsenal and one that the military says is needed for extended deterrence against Russian and North Korean threats.
Funding was restored, however, after military leaders explained that triggering packages and electronics built in the 1960s urgently needed modernization. A B61 variant is also planned for targeting hardened structures, such as underground nuclear sites in China, Russia, North Korea or Iran.
The Pentagon’s Defense Science Board in November completed a study examining how to defeat adversary underground and concealed facilities.
No details of the study were made public. But the report said more intelligence was needed on the threats and offered “effects chain” options and new systems for countering underground targets.
A 2002 Pentagon nuclear review stated that the military has a very limited ground-penetration capability and that its sole earth-penetrating nuclear weapon is the B61-11, an unguided gravity bomb that reportedly remains operational. A still newer bomb variant, the B61-13, is under development and could be deployed as early as September.
That bomb could also be used to blast hardened targets in underground bunkers or facilities. But the bomb will not be the earth-penetrating bomb that analysts say the Pentagon needs to reach many of China’s extensive underground nuclear facilities.
Former Pentagon nuclear planner Mark Schneider said that the Biden administration’s call for only 50 B61-13s will not be enough.
“The United States does not have sufficient nuclear weapons and few of them have high-confidence capabilities (very high-yield or high-yield and earth/rock penetrating capability) to threaten very deep [hard and buried targets],” Mr. Schneider said. China’s “Underground Great Wall” nuclear network is “reportedly hundreds of meters underground. It would probably require two counterforce-capable warheads against many aim points to achieve high damage expectancy against these tunnels.”
In addition to the B61, the NNSA is also rapidly working on modernizing several other warheads, including the W88, W87 and W80 missile warheads.
The Pentagon’s first nuclear warhead in 40 years, the W93, is also being developed. NNSA officials said work on that warhead is being sped up. The warhead will be used on submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
Nuclear force modernization is the Pentagon’s announced top priority. Many of the modernization plan’s new systems are behind schedule and over budget, including new submarines, bombers and ground-based missiles.
Report: Tesla Shanghai factory supplied by military-linked firms
Tesla Motors, led by Elon Musk, operates a large car factory in Shanghai that is supplied by Chinese companies linked to the People’s Liberation Army, according to a report in the online newsletter WireScreen.
The Jan. 2 report based on open-source reports states that many of the 84 companies that supplied key components to Tesla’s “gigafactory” north of Hangzhou Bay near Shanghai are also contractors for the Chinese military. The report found no evidence the links violated U.S. laws, but said some suppliers “have been sanctioned by the U.S. and have had ties to the Chinese Communist Party.”
The Shanghai factory produces nearly 1 million Teslas annually, with roughly one-third of the vehicles exported to other Asian countries, Europe and Latin America.
The report said nearly 80% of the identified 84 Chinese suppliers are linked to the government, with 40% part of the military-civilian fusion program that funnels advanced technology to China’s military. Over 30% of the Chinese suppliers are also involved in Chinese defense contracts, the report said.
The report also revealed that one Chinese company, the chemicals producer Xinjiang Tianye, supplied ethylene glycol used in coolant for Tesla China’s 2022 Model 3 cars.
Xinjiang Tianye was found to be 52.3% owned by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, a state-owned company that was sanctioned by the Treasury Department in 2020 for links to “serious human rights abuse against ethnic minorities in Xinjiang.”
Tesla operates a subsidiary in Urumqi, Xinjiang province, where the State Department has declared China to be engaged in genocide against Uyghur ethnic minorities, imprisoning over 1 million people.
