ANALYSIS:
The shock waves from Donald Trump’s decisive election win Tuesday reverberated worldwide, with allies offering congratulations and potential adversaries looking to smooth over relations with an incoming American president known for rewarding loyalty and holding grudges.
Understanding the full scope of the international fallout from Mr. Trump’s defeat of Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris will take months and perhaps years, but winners and losers are already apparent.
With his stunning political comeback, Mr. Trump believes the American people have given him a mandate to fulfill hard-line promises on immigration, trade, tariffs, foreign policy and U.S. military commitments abroad.
Ukraine and Russia signaled Wednesday that they were waiting to see how and when Mr. Trump follows through on his pledge to end the war between them. Depending on how a Trump-backed cease-fire push unfolds, each nation could find itself in the “winners” or “losers” category. Kyiv would have been far happier with a Harris win and a likely continuation of the Biden administration’s strong support.
In a social media post, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised Mr. Trump’s “peace through strength approach in global affairs” and said he is ready and willing to work with the Republican leader to help find a “just peace” for his country.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte could find the alliance again at odds with Mr. Trump over a pledge to reduce the American military footprint in Europe while cajoling other member nations to foot more of the bill for its defense. Mr. Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister said to have been chosen for the NATO job on his ability to work with Mr. Trump in his first term, tried to head off any tension by congratulating Mr. Trump on social media and saying his leadership would be “key to keeping our alliance strong.”
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his center-left Labor Party could be losers. Mr. Trump had close ties with prominent Conservative Party leaders, and his campaign expressed irritation that Labor Party political consultants were advising the Harris campaign on election tactics.
International organizations of every stripe could come under fire from the administration. Mr. Trump could target World Trade Organization policies that critics say have given China an economic leg up on the U.S. or the World Health Organization’s alleged mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The United Nations has become a frequent punching bag for Republicans who say the U.S. spends far too much on a global body no longer capable of tackling big problems and is essentially handcuffed by the veto power of permanent Security Council members China and Russia. It’s not clear whether Mr. Trump would pursue any significant reforms at the United Nations or seek to cut U.S. funding.
Perhaps the most apparent loser could be Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who assumed office on Oct. 1. This week, Mr. Trump said he would order the Mexican leader to stop the flow of illegal migrants across the U.S. border or face a 25% tariff on Mexican goods.
“If that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 50[%]. And if that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 75,” he told an audience in North Carolina. “They’re ripping us off left and right.”
With exit polls showing the illegal immigration crisis to be a top issue for voters, Mr. Trump will feel emboldened to take an even tougher line toward America’s southern neighbor and its relatively untested president.
Mr. Trump could also pursue his unique approach to one-on-one diplomacy. Some analysts expect him to resume diplomatic talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
If the Trump administration secures some denuclearization or nonproliferation deal with Mr. Kim’s nuclear-armed nation, South Korea, a key U.S. ally, could be an ultimate winner.
Across Asia, China could be the biggest loser of a second Trump term if his administration zeros in on Beijing as America’s top foreign adversary and mounts a multifaceted economic, military and diplomatic offensive against the communist regime. U.S. allies in the region, such as Taiwan, Japan, Australia and the Philippines, could stand to gain significantly from a security perspective if Mr. Trump pulls U.S. military resources from Europe or the Middle East and redirects them to the Pacific or if he strikes concrete military agreements pledging American support in the event of Chinese attacks.
New attitude toward Israel
The most prominent international winner might be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who appeared on the political ropes after Hamas’ devastating Oct. 7, 2023, attack. The Israeli leader wasted little time in congratulating Mr. Trump. The two men developed a deep personal connection during Mr. Trump’s first term in office.
For Mr. Netanyahu, a Trump presidency will mark a sea change in Washington’s approach to Israel and its military offensive against Iran and its proxy network across the Middle East, particularly the campaign against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. President Biden has threatened to slash U.S. military aid to Israel unless the Jewish state allows more humanitarian aid into the Palestinian enclave.
A Trump administration is likely to have far fewer objections and could offer much more U.S. military aid with fewer strings attached. Mr. Netanyahu seems to understand that.
“Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!” he wrote in a post on X early Wednesday, offering some of the most effusive praise of any world leader for Mr. Trump.
“Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America,” Mr. Netanyahu said. “This is a huge victory!”
Other big winners could be conservative populist leaders such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
Like Mr. Netanyahu, Mr. Orban quickly congratulated Mr. Trump on his “enormous win.”
“A much-needed victory for the world!” Mr. Orban said on social media.
If Israel and Hungary are winners, then Hamas, Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi rebels and their patron state, Iran, could be losers. During his first term, Mr. Trump imposed harsh economic sanctions that financially starved Iran. He also targeted Iran-backed militias across Iraq and Syria and ordered a U.S. airstrike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who had been widely viewed as a critical leader of Iran’s proxy network in the region.
Mr. Trump is also likely to be aggressive in ensuring that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.
At the same time, Mr. Trump is deeply wary of American military commitments abroad, and it’s unclear whether he would accelerate or wind down the U.S.-led air campaign against the Houthis, who have been targeting commercial ships in the Red Sea over the past year.
U.S. troops stationed across Africa and the Middle East could, in that sense, be “winners.” Analysts generally believe Mr. Trump will be more determined this time to achieve two foreign policy goals from his first term: pulling U.S. troops from Syria, where they have been battling the Islamic State group for years, and from Somalia, where they are fighting the terrorist network al-Shabab.