Israel-Hamas ceasefire dwell: Negotiations ‘on the brink’ as far-right attempt to block Gaza deal

Hamas is still waiting for Israel to submit maps showing how its military would withdraw from the besieged Gaza Strip, a source said.

During months of on-off talks to achieve a truce in the devastating 15-month-old war both sides have previously said they were close to a ceasefire only to hit last-minute obstacles.

The broad outlines of the current deal have been in place since mid-2024. President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration is now widely seen as a de facto deadline for a ceasefire agreement.

US secretary of state Antony Blinken criticised Israel’s war strategy, saying that Hamas has recruited almost as many new members as it lost during the year-long war in Gaza.

“We’ve long made the point to the Israeli government that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone, that without a clear alternative, a post-conflict plan and a credible political horizon for the Palestinians, Hamas, or something just as abhorrent and dangerous, will grow back,” Mr Blinken said in a speech at the Atlantic Council yesterday.

“Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back Hamas, militants regroup and re-emerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void,” he said.

“Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost. That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war,” Mr Blinken added.

Upon completion of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, negotiations over the second phase will begin on Day 16 of the truce.

According to the draft, all remaining hostages will be released in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a “sustainable calm”.

Israel has said it will not agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas’s military and political capabilities are eliminated and it cannot rearm — ensuring Hamas no longer runs Gaza.

Hamas says it will not hand over the last hostages until Israel removes all troops from everywhere in Gaza.

Effectively, Hamas has to agree to its own removal from power — something it has said it is willing to do, but it may seek to keep a hand in any future government, which Israel has vehemently rejected.

If the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal goes according to the current draft, then fighting will stop in Gaza for 42 days, and dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners will be freed.

During the first phase of the truce deal, Hamas is to release 33 hostages in exchange for the freeing of hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.

On the first official day of the ceasefire, Hamas is to free three hostages, then another four on the seventh day, according to reports. After the first week, the group will make weekly releases.

The first 33 hostages to be freed will include women, children and those over 50 — almost all civilians, but the deal also commits Hamas to free all living female soldiers. Hamas will release living hostages first, but if the living doesn’t complete the 33 number, bodies will be handed over.

In exchange, Israel will free 30 Palestinian women, children or elderly for each living civilian hostage freed. For each female soldier freed, Israel will release 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 serving life sentences.

In exchange for bodies handed over by Hamas, Israel will free all women and children it has detained from Gaza since the war began on 7 October 2023.

During the proposed deal’s first phase, Israeli troops are to pull back into a buffer zone about 1km wide inside Gaza along its borders with Israel to allow displaced Palestinians to return to their home.

Throughout the first phase, Israel will retain control of the Philadelphi Corridor, the strip of territory along Gaza’s border with Egypt, including the Rafah Crossing.

In the first phase, aid entry to Gaza is to be ramped up to hundreds of trucks a day of food, medicine, supplies and fuel to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. That is far more than Israel has allowed in throughout the war.

A ceasefire deal for Gaza is said to be the closest it has been for months – with a truce also allowing the freeing of hostages still held by Hamas.

Hamas killed around 1,200 people in a terror attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, and abducted another 250. Some 100 Israelis are still being held captive inside the Gaza Strip, and the military believes at least a third of them are dead.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not say how many of the dead were combatants.

A week before US President-elect Donald Trump takes over from President Joe Biden, officials said a breakthrough had been achieved in talks in Doha and agreement could be near.

Barney Davis covers everything we know about the draft deal:

US president-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming inauguration has been a major factor in closing the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, a former Israeli diplomat told CNN.

Secretary of state Antony Blinken has said the truce deal was “closer than it’s ever been before” after Hamas reportedly accepted the ceasefire draft to release the hostages.

“The tragic thing is… this deal was there for the taking for months,” said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York.

“And yet somehow it didn’t happen for political reasons: (Israeli prime minister Benjamin) Netanyahu’s political calculations to prolong the war and Hamas’ reluctance to accept some of the key ingredients in the deal.”

Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, over the weekend met the Israeli prime minister, who is facing pressure from both incumbent and incoming presidents to reach a deal.

Witkoff and Biden’s Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk, who are both currently in the region, have been working together in recent days with mediators to try to resolve some of the last remaining sticking points, CNN reported, citing sources.

“It had a tremendous influence on Israel, so much so that it validates those Netanyahu critics who said that he’s been prolonging the war for months waiting for Mr. Trump to get elected, and once Mr. Trump was elected in November, getting it nearer to the inauguration as possible,” Mr Pinkas added.

The “complex” issues in a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia to formalise diplomatic relations have been addressed, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said.

The deal would include a strategic alliance between Saudi Arabia and the US, along with cooperation in defence and military spheres.

It would also invoice an “energy agreement that includes civil nuclear cooperation and an economic agreement to bolster bilateral trade and investment for both sides,” Blinken said.

But Saudi Arabia wants efforts towards a Palestinian state to be part of the deal – something which Netanyahu’s office previously said it had not agreed to.