The U.S. must increase defense spending to Cold War levels if it expects to contend with international threats posed by a malign alliance of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea that could lead to a global war, according to a commission appointed by Congress.
On Wednesday, former California Rep. Jane Harman and Ambassador Eric Edelman, the chair and vice chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy, told lawmakers that the U.S. is facing its most severe threats in decades. The U.S. last fought a global conflict in World War II nearly 80 years ago and isn’t prepared for one today, they said.
“It’s not just the level of spending, it’s what we spend it on. We continue to fund legacy systems,” Ms. Harman said, referring to outdated weapons that remain in the inventory, sometimes because of political pressure. “Our view is spend more, but spend smarter and pay for it.”
Russia is waging the largest land war in Europe since 1945. Despite economic sanctions and export controls from the U.S. and other countries, it continues launching devastating military attacks against Ukrainian targets, often civilians. China’s financial and military backing has enabled Moscow to continue the aggression, the commission members said.
“It has allowed the Russian defense industrial base to go on a three shit a day, 24-7 footing that has allowed them to rain death and destruction on civilians in Ukraine with missiles and drones,” Mr. Edelman said.
He said that the partnership between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea represents a major shift in the international strategic environment and strengthens each country militarily, economically and diplomatically.
“It makes it much likelier that a conflict that erupts in one theater would spread to others,” Mr. Edelman said.
Russia may be providing China with submarine technology in return for military support for the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. If so, it will likely erode some of the longstanding warfare advantages the U.S. has over China, the commission said.
“There’s a growing collaboration among these four bad actors, and it’s hard to imagine that if we were in a conflict, say the Indo-Pacific over Taiwan or the South China Sea, that North Korea would not try to take advantage of it,” Mr. Edelman said.
The commissioners noted that the 2022 National Defense Strategy identified China as the “pacing challenge” for the U.S. based on the strength of its military and economy and intent to dominate both regionally and globally.
“The Commission finds that, in many ways, China is outpacing the United States and has largely negated the U.S. military advantage in the Western Pacific through two decades of focused military investments,” they said in the report published in July.
Ms. Harman said the members of the bipartisan commission believe that the 2022 National Defense Strategy is “woefully” out of date. The document was written in early 2022 before Russia invaded Ukraine, the rise of Moscow’s strategic partnership with China, and the launch of Hamas’ attack on Israel.
“For years, our government has failed to keep up. The entire system, and the Pentagon in particular, are risk-averse and slow to act,” Ms. Harman said.
Rep. Mike Rogers, the Alabama Republican who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, called the report “a sobering reality check for our nation.”
“The commission also confirms what we’ve been hearing for years from our combatant commanders — China is outpacing us on many fronts,” Mr. Rogers said. “They urge a change in culture at (the Pentagon) to move past bureaucratic risk-aversion, and adopt an acquisition system that speeds the delivery of innovation.”
The report questions the ability of the U.S. military to prevail in one or more major conflicts while simultaneously deterring other threats.
But they said the Pentagon cannot provide for the national defense by itself. It called for an across-the-board “whole of government” approach to providing for the national defense.
“I appreciate the commission’s more expansive approach as the U.S. domestic capacity, concerted U.S. governmental efforts, and the contributions of allies and partners are all crucial to U.S. national security,” said Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the ranking Democrat on the Armed Services Committee.
The commission said the American public is largely unaware of the dangers the U.S. now faces due to the China–Russia–Iran–North Korea alliance or the costs required to be adequately prepared. They aren’t anticipating disruptions to their daily life if a conflict were to erupt.
“A bipartisan ‘call to arms’ is urgently needed so that the United States can make the major changes and significant investments now rather than wait for the next Pearl Harbor or 9/11,” the report states.
Ambassador Edelman has been serving on congressionally-mandated national defense strategy commissions since 2010. Each past report concluded that the U.S. military was in danger of losing its decisive edge if something wasn’t done to alter the decline in military preparedness. This year’s report was no different, he said.
“All of us were persuaded that the threats are more serious now than they were before. We have failed to keep pace as a nation,” Mr. Edelman said. “There is a real potential for a near-term war, which would be hard to imagine that would not be a global war. There is a chance we could lose such a conflict.”