NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
Danish warships are shadowing a Chinese freighter suspected of severing two underwater cables in the Baltic Sea this week, disrupting internet communications in the region and prompting claims of sabotage.
The disruption of the two cables on Sunday and Monday led several governments to suggest the action was the result of what the military calls “gray zone” warfare involving China and Russia — conflict below the level of physical combat. On Monday, the foreign ministers of Germany and Finland issued a joint statement on the matter.
“We are deeply concerned about the severed undersea cable connecting Finland and Germany in the Baltic Sea,” the statement said. “The fact that such an incident immediately raises suspicions of intentional damage speaks volumes about the volatility of our times.”
The ministers said that an investigation is underway and that European security is “not only under threat from Russia‘s war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors.”
The Danish Defense Command said in a post Wednesday on X that it had forces near the ship, but declined to comment on reports the Chinese vessel had been boarded.
“Regarding the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3: The Danish Defense can confirm that we are present in the area near the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3,” the command said.
The bulk carrier was shown in a photograph sailing under a bridge in Korsor, Denmark. It was anchored at the Kattegat strait between Denmark and Sweden on Wednesday, Reuters reported from Stockholm. A Danish navy ship is nearby.
One underwater cable connected Sweden, Lithuania, Finland and Germany and was damaged within Sweden’s exclusive economic zone, prompting a Swedish investigation. Swedish police told the news agency TT that the Yi Peng 3 is a vessel of interest and that other vessels may be linked to its inquiry.
Reports from Europe said the Chinese freighter left the Russian port of Ust-Luga on Nov. 15 and that a Russian national was the captain of the ship. The vessel was spotted near the areas where the cable was damaged, according to public ship traffic data that also showed other ships in the area at the time.
One of the cables that stretched from Sweden to Lithuania was cut on Sunday. A second longer cable between Finland and Germany was severed on Monday. Swedish Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said that the Swedish military and coast guard detected ship movements related to the disruption of the two telecom cables in the Baltic Sea, Reuters reported.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said the damaged cables appeared to be sabotage and “hybrid action” by as-yet unidentified actors.
“No one believes that these cables were cut by accident. I also don’t subscribe to theories suggesting that ship anchors caused the damage to the cables,” Mr. Pistorius said, amid increased tensions with Russia. “We have to assume, without certain information, that the damage is caused by sabotage.”
In Beijing, a government spokesman told reporters that China always requires its flagged vessels to abide by relevant laws and regulations.
“We also attach great importance to the protection of seabed infrastructure and, together with the international community, we are actively promoting the construction and protection of submarine cables and other global information infrastructures,” the spokesman said.
The Chinese Communist Party-affiliated Global Times outlet reported this week that China has developed the world’s first deep-sea optical cable winch system.
“The optical cable winch system is designed for deploying, recovering and towing large systems such as deep-sea towing systems and cable-controlled underwater robots,” the report said.
Analysts say the winch could also be used by the Chinese military to grab or cut undersea cables in wartime or in a crisis.
Admiral warns Ukraine aid depleting U.S. missile stocks
The supply of advanced U.S. air defense and air-to-air missiles to Ukraine is depleting stockpiles needed for deterring China, the commander of the Indo-Pacific Command said Tuesday.
Adm. Sam Paparo said that until recently, deliveries of less valuable arms, such as artillery pieces and short-range weapons, had no impact on the readiness of his forces, which are confronting an increasingly aggressive Chinese military across East Asia.
“But now with some of the Patriots that have been employed, some of the air-to-air missiles that have been employed, it’s now eating into stocks,” Adm. Paparo said in remarks at the Brookings Institution. “And to say otherwise would be dishonest.”
The Pentagon has sent two Army Patriot anti-missile and anti-aircraft interceptor systems to Ukraine, one in December 2022 and a second in June. The Army has only 15 of the high-demand systems in the United States and worldwide.
Each battery includes five to eight launchers that contain a mix of as many as 68 total interceptor missiles for PAC-3 and older PAC-2 systems.
A Patriot anti-missile system reportedly shot down a Russian hypersonic missile in the conflict, highlighting its advanced defense capabilities.
The Pentagon also sent Ukraine advanced AIM-9X air-to-air missiles for Kyiv’s F-16 fighters, along with more advanced Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, or AMRAAMs. The AIM-9X can be used against both cruise missiles and drones.
The four-star admiral said the higher-end weapons are mutually interchangeable across all geographical regions and can be applied equally for any military conflict, but that getting the weapons where they are needed can present logistical problems.
“None are preserved for any particular theater, but none can move with alacrity to any theater,” Adm. Paper said. “Inherently, it imposes costs on the readiness of America to respond in the Indo-Pacific region, which is the most stressing theater for the quantity and quality of munitions because the [China] is the most capable potential adversary in the world.”
U.S. stockpiles of the advanced arms must be replenished “and then some,” he said.
China uses ‘strategic deception’
China is using strategic deception to advance its strategy of seeking a preeminent world position, and understanding Beijing’s use of duplicity in statecraft is critical for successful American policies, according to Miles Yu, a former State Department policymaker and expert on the Chinese military.
Mr. Yu said in a report published by the Hoover Institution that Henry Kissinger understood Chinese deception well, saying that leader Mao Zedong showed “an almost instinctive ability to misdirect his opponent, creating illusions of weakness where the strength lay and vice versa.”
For China, strategic deception is shaped by concepts of realpolitik dating back to the Warring States era, between 475 B.C. and 221 B.C., and combined with revised Marxist dialectical thinking. Realpolitik influence uses pragmatism, deception and unprincipled flexibility, while Marxist dialectical thinking is used to understand and manipulate contradictions to drive progress.
“Together, these two perspectives offer the [Chinese Communist Party] a toolkit of strategies for managing complex and conflicting interests both domestically and internationally, enabling a highly adaptive and multilayered approach to governance that frequently is duplicitous,” Mr. Yu said in a report for Hoover’s Military History in Contemporary Conflict Working Group.
From the Warring States period, China’s current leaders believe power can be secured and preserved through deception, exploiting weaknesses and forming opportunistic alliances without regard for strict principles or ideological commitment.
For China’s leaders, this approach complements Marxist principles that regard contradictions as inherent in social and political life and engines for change.
In practice, current “socialism with Chinese characteristics” combines capitalist market practices with communist rhetoric and is justified as necessary for China’s modernization.
The synthesis permits the blending of capitalism and socialism. “For instance, China maintains economic relationships with Western nations, benefiting from global trade and investment — while simultaneously it acts contradictorily to the foundational principles of the Western free market system, aligning itself with states that challenge Western influence such as Russia and North Korea,” Mr. Yu said.
Inside China, strategic duplicity applies the Warring States-Marxist approach through enforcement of strict ideological conformity under a centralized, authoritarian system, but can be flexible in the face of internal pressures.
For example, China’s draconian “zero Covid” lockdowns and policies in response to the recent pandemic were quickly abandoned after protests and opposition erupted in late 2022.
Ideological flexibility can also be seen in the Chinese government’s public advocacy of socialism while permitting capitalist elements like non-state enterprises to drive economic growth. China’s aggressive policies of seeking to annex Taiwan and control the South China Sea also employ strategic flexibility.
“China publicly asserts a desire for peaceful reunification with Taiwan while building military capabilities and establishing economic dependencies that increase its leverage over the region,” Mr. Yu said.
“This patient, incremental approach reflects the Warring States emphasis on long-term positioning through deception and indirect influence.”
From the Marxist view, these actions help resolve the ideological contradiction between China’s current strength and its long-term desire for unified territory.
“In this hybrid approach, the [Communist Party’s] duplicity is not a mere tactic but a calculated, theoretically grounded strategy,” he said.
“This synthesis has become a defining characteristic of modern Chinese statecraft, enabling the CCP to adapt dynamically to a complex world while advancing its power and preserving its rule.”