South Korea’s political disaster will get sudden new jolt of instability
SEOUL, South Korea — Korea’s political crisis, ignited by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s shock announcement of martial law on Tuesday, followed by its near-immediate overturn hours later on Wednesday, ramped up a notch Thursday.
A new development is raising the possibility of a frozen legislative branch compounding ongoing paralysis in the executive branch.
The ruling People Power Party, which has urged the besieged president to resign, announced Thursday that it will not support an impending impeachment vote.
“As party leader, I will work to ensure that this impeachment does not pass,” said party head Han Dong-hoon — who is himself at odds with Mr. Yoon.
It is widely believed that if an impeachment motion is passed and upheld by the Constitutional Court, the leftist Democratic Party of Korea would carry the subsequent presidential election.
Mr. Han, however, said his aim was “to prevent harm from unprepared chaos to the public and supporters.”
SEE ALSO: Motion for South Korean President Yoon’s impeachment filed; vote expected in days
A motion for Mr. Yoon’s impeachment was filed yesterday by 191 lawmakers from the opposition DPK and minority parties. It is expected to go to vote on Saturday.
Constitutionally, a presidential impeachment motion requires two-thirds of the Assembly’s 300 votes to pass — i.e., 200. However, the PPP occupies 108 seats.
That means unless eight or more PPP lawmakers defy Mr. Han’s line and cross the floor, the motion will fail.
If impeachment founders, South Korea could head into uncharted political territory. The legislature, as well as the presidency, could end up deadlocked.
Ruling party conflicted over president
Facing a long-hostile National Assembly, haunted by low popularity ratings and irked by impeachments of his appointees and repeated demands for probes into his wife’s alleged corruption, Mr. Yoon went for broke with his declaration of martial law.
It proved a colossal blunder: His already wobbly credibility was demolished.
Mr. Yoon has since hunkered down and not appeared in public. His only significant move has been to replace Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, widely seen as a key adviser behind his martial law declaration.
Both men are set to face treason investigations.
Mr. Yoon’s Cabinet — most of whom, according to right-wing media, were dismayed by, or uninformed about his autocoup — have tendered mass resignations.
The PPP’s stance on Thursday marks a U-turn after its actions on Tuesday/Wednesday.
PPP members rallied and joined majority opposition lawmakers at the National Assembly immediately after Mr. Yoon’s televised declaration late Tuesday.
Circumstances were dramatic. Furious crowds massed outside, police acted half-heartedly to prevent access and special forces troops who had forced their way in seemed uncertain of how to proceed.
Politicians acted with speed and conviction.
Just under three hours after Mr. Yoon’s declaration, the 190 lawmakers in the chamber — including 18 from the PPP — voted unanimously to overturn martial law.
Mr. Yoon bowed to that decision three hours later.
There was considerable relief. Not a single shot was fired, and no injuries — let alone deaths — were reported.
There was subsequent praise for the solidity of South Korea’s democratic foundations, deeply embedded in 1987 after years of struggle against authoritarian governance.
Now, risks are rising again.
What if impeachment fails?
If both arms of national governance freeze, politics may be pushed onto the streets. That could mean the kind of million-person protests that ousted the last conservative president, Park Geun-hye in 2017, will be repeated.
That situation, however, is not directly comparable. Then, the conservative party accepted the inevitable and voted to impeach — unlike the PPP today.
Politics watchers are scratching their heads.
“There is no answer right now,” said Yang Sun-mook, a former international relations head of the DPK. “So far this has been absurd; ahead, there could be unheard-of chaos.”
The PPP is in a ticklish position. Courtesy of just eight seats in the 300-person legislature, it could maintain a despised and disempowered president and bring National Assembly business to a standstill.
Lee Jae-myung — who, as DPK head, is likely the chief beneficiary of Mr. Yoon’s downfall — urged the PPP to take on “historical responsibility” and not become “accomplices to treason.”
Some reckon Mr. Lee and his supporters moved too swiftly.
“Perhaps they should have waited a few weeks for a million people to hit the streets,” said Mike Breen, a long-term Korean watcher and author of ‘The Koreans.’ “That could have changed some PPP lawmakers’ minds.”
Though he agrees Mr. Yoon made a serious error, Mr. Breen suggested that a national habit of punishing presidents and ex-presidents is a cycle some Koreans are against.
Since national establishment in 1948, one has been exiled, one assassinated and one committed suicide. Three have been jailed and two have been impeached — one successfully.
Mr. Breen also noted that the huge demonstrations that led to the last impeachment — Ms. Park’s — were orchestrated in their early stages by unionists who also oppose Mr. Yoon.
“They have been mobilizing for Yoon’s impeachment since he was elected,” Mr. Breen said.
Outside the corridors of power, the nation is calm, with demonstrations good-natured.
On Wednesday night, thousands of protesters intending to march on the presidential compound were amicably halted by police, about one mile from Mr. Yoon’s location.
“There is an air among the general public that they went through a lot worse situations than this,” said Mr. Yang.
Though he admitted to misgivings about politics, he also said that Korea’s elite bureaucrats can keep administrative wheels turning – at least for the short term.
“Cabinet members have resigned, nobody is working and that could be OK for a few days,” he said. “But we have an expression, that reserve manpower among the civil service is ready to take on more work.”
