20.11.2023: SD fails to renew rising. Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD

The US greenback continues buying and selling at its 11-year low because it dropped in opposition to all main currencies. This is how buyers have factored of their expectations of a key fee reduce within the spring of 2024. Although officers of the Federal Reserve didn’t clearly say something about the important thing fee reduce, they nearly unanimously introduced that there was no use in elevating rates of interest larger. In different phrases, the US regulator confirmed buyers’ assumptions concerning the finish of the rising cycle. In this gentle, the market state of affairs began altering. The truth is that in Europe, the important thing rate of interest is a bit decrease than within the United States. This signifies that the European Central Bank has extra room for maneuver. What is extra, inflation in Europe is larger. Thus, the ECB has fewer causes for the important thing fee reduce. In different phrases, the Federal Reserve might be the primary to begin loosening financial coverage. It is even attainable that the ECB’s rate of interest could exceed that of the Fed at a specific time period. At current, it’s the most important driver within the forex market. On the buying and selling chart, we see that the euro jumped in opposition to the US greenback, thus leaving a sideways channel the place it was hovering for 3 days in a row. After that, the amount of lengthy positions surged, thus permitting the one forex to climb even larger. If the forex continues gaining in worth, it could method the psychological stage of 1.1000. This will show the euro’s restoration after a decline we noticed this summer time. However, if the value slides under 1.0900, the amount of lengthy positions could drop, thus inflicting a pullback. Meanwhile, the pound sterling completed its correctional course of in opposition to the buck with a gradual enhance within the quantity of lengthy positions. As a consequence, the quote returned to the native excessive, the place a resistance stage of 1.2500 was settled. To proceed climbing, the British pound ought to consolidate above 1.2500. In the occasion of this, the amount of lengthy positions could enhance, thus permitting the pound sterling to climb even larger.

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00:00 INTRO
00:15 FED KEY INTEREST RATE
00:39 ECB KEY INTEREST RATE
00:56 BUILDING OF THE FED
01:14 EUR | USD
01:49 GBP | USD